India Population to be Even by 2020: Survey

india fertility rateWith the fertility rate falling faster than expected, a 2013 survey results of a sample registration survey (SRS) conducted by registrar general showed that India will reach replacement levels by 2020 with the total fertility rate in 8 States below 2 children per woman.
The data released on Monday shows that the Total Fertility Rate or the average number of children born per woman, in eight states has fallen below two children per woman.

In nine States of the north and east, except for Gujarat, it has not reached replacements levels of 2.1, below which populations begin to decline.

West Bengal tops the list as India’s lowest fertility, with the southern States, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. Even Odisha has reduced its fertility to 2.1.

“At 2.3, India is now just 0.2 points away from reaching replacement levels. Fertility is declining rapidly, including among the poor and illiterate. At these rates, India will achieve its demographic transition and reach replacement levels as early as 2020 or 2022,” Dr. P. Arokiasamy, a demographer and Professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai said.

The infant mortality rate (IMR), however, less positive, though it has fallen to 40 deaths per 1,000 live births, and 49 deaths of children under the age of 5 for every 1,000 live births.

The Millenium Development Goals for 2015 are still less than that and the IMR has fallen mostly in rural areas than in urban areas.

Among metros, Chennai has the lowest IMR (16), and among states, Kerala has the best IMR at 12 deaths per 1,000 births, followed by Delhi and Maharashtra, which have IMRs twice that of Kerala.

Coming to the girl child, the higher mortality rates still remains the same for infant girls and for girls under the age of five than for boys, as agains the global trend.


  1. Excellent news!! I hope the socially, economically and mentally backward states of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan soon realize why they should reduce fornication for reproduction. Smaller families is much better for a good enjoyable life. Also, the unending migration to other states especially the South will stop. That will give some chance for Mumbai and bangalore to recover from the onslaught from N. Indian states.

  2. Kerala has high % of Muslim population (>25%) in the country even more than UP. Still low population growth rate.

  3. Polpulation is one matter and religion is another, if you think religion is forever then sorry. No one gets any benefit from religion, it is a waste of time and waste of human intellect. So is the capitalistic structure. We will evolve into a spiritual society. After all, religion is nothing but ashes of masters who lived to teach spirituality and these ashes will die down. Religion if followed with closed eyes, is worse than suicide. At the end you pay for your karma. Enter the first of 8 planes of existance and they will laugh if you even try to portray yourself as a muslim or hindu or christian. No dead master can save his religious followers. All people who think their god is better are in for a dark dark death

  4. Not at all a good news…. If fertility Rate falls below 2.1 then our Country Population will decline and also the culture. If the rate reaches 1.8 we cannot reverse the population.

    If this continues we will also join the race of western countries where they don’t have a new generation of their own and depend upon migrated civilization.

    Biggest worry is Islam takes advantage of this, and the fertility rate of Islam is 8 far more than 2.1. They are targeting the low fertility countries and growing their population.

    If this continues.. the entire world will be Islamic State 1 day !

  5. At first I strongly reacted for Kum’s comment, but after giving a thought, I suppose she/he is right..
    Population is the sole cause for backwardness of these states and thus the Nation…and I am from UP

  6. Govt. Must focus on decreasing population in UP, Bihar & MP. These states are pulling India down in every sense.

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